FK Krasnodar – Nalchik

I have a sympathy to hosting club. Its president Sergey Galitsky is famous enterpreneur in Russia who created his bussiness (retail food supermarkets) from zero. His team plays decently considering the fact the team entered RPL the last moment. In first matches Muslin used the one-forward scheme and put all concentration to good defence. 0 conceded goals in 2 matches.
I didnt’t like Nalchik in game agains Samarians. The pressure in attack was created just because of corners and free kicks. Penalty was accidental.
If catching big odds I’d advice to bet on scores 1:0, 2:0. Personally I bet the guest team under 1 goal in local bookie for 1,55.

Amkar – Lokomotiv

I don’t share euphory about Loko win over Dinamo. First two goals were accidental, when defenders scored. One player I liked from Loko was Maicon, but he looked great comparing with Kisenkov, who failed this match. It will be very tough for Loko in Perm, although hosts were bad in previous games. 1x is a good bet for me.

Rubin – Terek

If somebody asked me what match in this tour I’d like to pick Over I would say this match. This year Berdyev, Rubin’s coach, is trying to build an attacking model with three forwards. I don’t see much more goal moments from Rubin but their games became more open – it is a fact. Terek under Gullit managenement is associated with attacking team. Against Zenit they had many moments, but realization was bad. Over 2 goals is a good proper pick.

Tomorrow Russian Premier-League starts and I decided to highlight this tournament. As I live in Russia there will be no problems of getting information, not insiders of course – just news from teams, injuries and of course the picture of football. The previous year was good for betting, this year is expected.

Ok, let’s start from the first tour.

Anzhi – Krasnodar X2 1,88 Marathonbet

I don’t have explanations why odds on Anzhi are dropping. Anzhi has very rich president Kerimov who spent much money on some aquisitions. But this match nobody from novices will  play, just Roberto Carlos. He is very old and his playing against Zenith was very terriful.
Fk Krasnodar stayed a good impression against Amkar. It is the solid team, don’t see it is just from the second division.

Nalchik – Krylya Sovetov H2(+0,25) 1,88 188bet

Odds on hosts are dropping. Again incorrect. Match will be played in Grozny and this fact decreases Nalchik chances. They lose some players and especially their great coach. Krylya played well the rest of previous season under Tarkhanov management.

Lokomotiv – Dinamo

Difficult match for betting. Just to see.

Next matches tomorrow.

Macedonia – Russia

In our national team games I am used to betting lay bets. This gets me free from huge emotions during and after the match. I lose but then team won, and inside out. I bet as a rule a half of average amount. So in this match I bet Macedonia(+1) at 1.73. A good football from our team in Ireland is reasoned by hosts open play and huge (especialle long) pitch. Macedonians at home will play defensively, the same way Slovakians did in Moscow. Our team don’t love to play with such opponents. I don’t say that they can’t. Wait and see.

Armenia – Andorra

Another game from B group – let’s take it as it’s more readable comparing to Slovakia – Ireland. Armenians are in good mood after crushing Slovakia, but tomorrow they will face not simple task as it can be seemed. The scenario of Georgia – Malta where David Siradze scored the only goal just on added time can repeat. I suppose guests will not score (the coefficent on this is small) so I recommend you to bet Under(3) or even better Under(3,5) at good rates.

Latvia – Georgia

Latvian football is fallen on hard times, the national teams plays with old baggage. And I don’t see them as favorites even formal in this match. Georgian team played last games disciplinarily, coach Temury Ketzbaya brang some stability to team, players are very good. So X2 is a good bet.

San-Marino – Moldova

Considering the defensive style of Moldovian team, it’s no will to play handicap, although (-2) looks great. San-Marino is the weakest European dwarf so even Moldovians should easily cope with them. I like the pick Only Moldova to score in Bet365 at 1,72.

It should be a fixed match. Rostov now looks much better than Amkar but before this match the team has many injured and disqualified players – it is a good cause to lose the match))).

Russian bookmakers paid attention of our local football government, and there will be 3 special observers on this match. But all we know how they observe))).

Yesterday  I took Rostov +1,5 1.66 in Marathonbet. Suppose, this is a good price. If the match is fixed the match will be minimal, if not – the draw is possible.

Today our local press told that this match will be taken not in Makhachkala, but in Vladikavkaz on Alania stadium. The commission checking the conditions of Russian stadiums wasn’t satisfied with quality of pitch, and it’s really awful – the workers of stadium didn’t look after the grass cos their work wasn’t paid. So the match will be held on neutral ground and we should evaluate chances considering this.

Terek’s squad is stronger, all the more Anzhi has problems with attack – the nominal defender Gadzhibekov plays as a forward.  However this didn’t prevent Anzhi to win Tom’ on Siberian visit.  This match I do not wait the same scenario, I think it will be a draw or  any team win with one goal margin. But looking at the line I see a value on Terek not to lose a value and surely bet on this.  More brave punters can bet DNB or win for Terek. Good luck to all!!!!

If we look at the Russian championship table we see the big gap between two teams:

4. Nalchik 22 points …………………… 16. Saturn 8 points

So you can wonder why I chose this bet. Let’s enumerate reasons.

1) Saturn are playing every game better. I watched their previous game with CSKA Moscow and they have the same moments on goal as strong hosts. Actually Saturn by play is a mid-table team and I suppose they will survive by the tournament finish.

2) Nalchik is a good team with the average players but well-built play – it’s a merit of coach, Yuri Krasnozhan. The second year in a row the team starts very successfully. But the financial abilities, infrastructure of Nalchik are modest and club is not capable for instance to host CL games. The players understand that and accomplishing the goal already after the first half-season start to play more imposing. The previous year was so and this year I am also waiting for this.

3) Nalchik will miss their captain Miodrag Djudovic who was sent off in previous game. It shouldn’t to be a big blow in the start of season but now it is. Recently the second central midfielder Amisulashvili went to Turkish Kocaelispor.  And now his place takes unexperienced Vasin (21 year-old), who played already the previous game.

Summing up these facts, I bet on Saturn.

2. Birkirkara – Zilina Under 2,5 2,05 Bet365 5%

3. FC Atyrau – Gyor DNB 2nd team 2,28 Marathonbet 5%

1)  The Azeri rich businessmen spend much money on investing local clubs. So in club squads we can see many foreign players especially from Brazil.

Inter Baku is a clear picture of this – the club is strong enough for this stage of eurocups. Lech from Poznan’ is well-known team during last seasons and the favorite of two matches combat. But tonight game has no outsiders – the game will be accurate with a few chances to score a goal. The heat over 30 degrees will assists in this bet.

2) The level of teams is rather different: from one side Maltese club, from other side – the club having CL history. But this match should be easy reading – close to draw and minimum goals. Slovaks are not in a good shape, besides host will defend the whole match.

3) This year Kazakh clubs performance is very poor: Shakhter and FC Tobol were eliminated even having a better stamina. And now the time to lose for Atyrau. They are only on 8-th place in local championship and meet the team from Hungary who made a great impression in both matches with Slovak Nitra.

2. Spain – Germany Booking Points Spain: Under 20,5 1,85 Ex 5%

3. Spain – Germany Shots on goal H1(0) 1,8 Ex 5%

1) Germany show the amazing football on this WC but in Spanish slow, moving forward movement I see more reasons to win tonight.

Spanish style is inconvenient for Germans looking for open spaces – Spain play more tightly than Englishmen and Argentinians. Even not considering the fact Germans didn’t win Spanish during last 10 years, the forecast of great Octopus Paul who chose Spanish side can’t be unnoticed.

2) Spanish side On this WC hasn’t earned so much booking points. The maximum (20 points) was in the last match with Uruguay.

3) Russian bookies all give the handicap of one shot, so this bet is worth to trying.

2. Serbia – Ghana Fouls Under 35,5 1,95 Unibet 5%

3. Germany – Australia Possession 2nd (+10) Expect 5%

4. Germany + Netherlands  Shots on goal =1,86 Unibet 5%

1) Even without knowledge of Algeria playing style, I suppose the total value is inflated. The previous 5 matches on Mundial were corrective and today I also expect the day with not so big amount of fouls.2) This is risky match but let’s try. I like the stats of this match referee, he whistles not much and gives teams to play football.

3)  The big likelyhood Germans will score early goal and will give the ball to Australians.

The previous friendly matches of the the team from the Green Continent [on the photo] showed that New Zealand is not so easy for opponents as it seemed to be. Of course they not overplayed Australia and Serbia (lose 1:2 and won 1:0) but demonstrated a good compact football with good stamina. I suppose that for Slovenian forwards it will be a difficult puzzle to score at least one goal, considering the lack of inventiveness in Balkan squad. The expected scores 1:0 and 1:1.